[greenyes] Global Warming in the Arctic

["Peter Anderson" <anderson@no.address>]

NEW YORK TIMES
October 30, 2004
Big Arctic Perils Seen in Warming, Survey Finds
By ANDREW C. REVKIN

 comprehensive four-year study of warming in the Arctic shows that 
heat-trapping gases from tailpipes and smokestacks around the world are 
contributing to profound environmental changes, including sharp retreats of 
glaciers and sea ice, thawing of permafrost and shifts in the weather, the 
oceans and the atmosphere.

The study, commissioned by eight nations with Arctic territory, including 
the United States, says the changes are likely to harm native communities, 
wildlife and economic activity but also to offer some benefits, like longer 
growing seasons. The report is due to be released on Nov. 9, but portions 
were provided yesterday to The New York Times by European participants in 
the project.

While Arctic warming has been going on for decades and has been studied 
before, this is the first thorough assessment of the causes and consequences 
of the trend.

It was conducted by nearly 300 scientists, as well as elders from the native 
communities in the region, after representatives of the eight nations met in 
October 2000 in Barrow, Alaska, amid a growing sense of urgency about the 
effects of global warming on the Arctic.

The findings support the broad but politically controversial scientific 
consensus that global warming is caused mainly by rising atmospheric 
concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, and that the Arctic is the 
first region to feel its effects. While the report is advisory and carries 
no legal weight, it is likely to increase pressure on the Bush 
administration, which has acknowledged a possible human role in global 
warming but says the science is still too murky to justify mandatory 
reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions.

The State Department, which has reviewed the report, declined to comment on 
it yesterday.

The report says that "while some historical changes in climate have resulted 
from natural causes and variations, the strength of the trends and the 
patterns of change that have emerged in recent decades indicate that human 
influences, resulting primarily from increased emissions of carbon dioxide 
and other greenhouse gases, have now become the dominant factor."

The Arctic "is now experiencing some of the most rapid and severe climate 
change on Earth," the report says, adding, "Over the next 100 years, climate 
change is expected to accelerate, contributing to major physical, 
ecological, social and economic changes, many of which have already begun."

Scientists have long expected the Arctic to warm more rapidly than other 
regions, partly because as snow and ice melt, the loss of bright reflective 
surfaces causes the exposed land and water to absorb more of the sun's 
energy. Also, warming tends to build more rapidly at the surface in the 
Arctic because colder air from the upper atmosphere does not mix with the 
surface air as readily as at lower latitudes, scientists say.

_________________________
Peter Anderson, President
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