[greenyes] Climate Disruption - New Confirmation from Ocean Measurements

["Peter Anderson" <anderson@no.address>]

UPI in the WASHINGTON TIMES

Climate: Ocean warming supports models


By Dan Whipple

Boulder, CO, Jun. 6 (UPI) -- Clear evidence of human-produced warming in the 
oceans verifies some of the most important predictions of climate models, 
suggesting it is time for action instead of argument about the existence of 
greenhouse warming, according to a paper by Scripps Institution of 
Oceanography scientists.

A paper appearing in the June 3 issue of the journal Science by Tim Barnett, 
a marine physicist at Scripps, and colleagues reported that a strong warming 
signal has penetrated the world's oceans over the last 40 years that cannot 
be explained by natural internal climate variability or by solar or volcanic 
forcings -- but is consistent with human causes.

"The thing that is nice about our deal is that we found that most of the 
heat increase has gone into the oceans, and the oceans are the flywheel of 
the global climate system," Barnett told UPI's Climate. "We looked at where 
the biggest signal was. If your models are going to be any good, you'd like 
to get that one right -- and they sure did."

Barnett's group found a close agreement between observed warming signals in 
the oceans and the predictions of two prominent climate models: one called 
the Parallel Climate Model used by the National Center for Atmospheric 
Research in Boulder, Colo., and one used by Britain's Hadley Centre in 
Exeter.
The results indicate the climate models can be trusted for any important 
predictions.

"Since the historical changes have been well simulated, future changes 
predicted by these global models are apt to be reasonably good, at least out 
to, say, 20 or 30 years into the future," the paper said, although Barnett 
told Climate that the models' accuracy farther out, to 2050, for example, is 
less reliable.
Nevertheless, he said, the results are strong enough to settle the argument 
about whether human activity is causing current warming.

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The paper by Barnett and colleagues comes on the heels of another paper in 
Science a few weeks ago that found Earth is absorbing considerably more 
energy from the sun than it is emitting back into space. That paper, by 
James Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and 
colleagues found Earth's heat balance has shifted substantially. Based both 
on models and observations, they concluded the planet can expect global 
warming of an average of 0.6 degrees Celsius (1.1 degrees Fahrenheit), even 
if carbon-dioxide emissions into the atmosphere were curtailed immediately.

"This energy imbalance is the 'smoking gun' that we have been looking for," 
Hansen said in a news release. "It shows that our estimates of the 
human-made and natural climate forcing agents are about right, and they are 
driving the Earth toward a warmer climate."

The two papers are complementary. Together, they provide strong verification 
of at least the larger mid-time-scale predictions of the climate models.
"The statistical significance of these results is far too strong to be 
merely dismissed and should wipe out much of the uncertainty about the 
reality of global warming," Barnett said.

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The ocean-warming research results are strong enough, Barnett thinks, along 
with the other recent research, to shift the debate away from whether 
human-induced climate change is occurring.

"We need to do something about it," he said. "We need leadership. There are 
a lot of things that can be done, and we're doing none of them, as a 
country. If they think they've got Social Security problems in 2041, wait 
until they see what this one looks like."

FOR FULL ARTICLE 
http://www.washtimes.com/upi-breaking/20050606-111933-8954r.htm
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