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RE: [greenyes] Bleak Projection of Peak Oil Production

I'm glad this came up on this list.

This is an issue I have been following closely for the last couple of years. More expensive plastics is one of the more minor consequences of the Peak Oil production issue, or Hubbert's Peak (named after M. King Hubbert, the geologist that predicted this in the 1950s). This website describes Hubbert's peak:

I see this as one of the biggest challenges of our generation (and probably the next few). Combine this with global climate change, which will place more energy demands upon us, and it's not a pretty picture. It's something everyone of us should be keenly aware of.

There is a pretty good synopsis of the peak oil issue in the article by James Howard Kunstler tilted "The Long Emergency" recently reprinted in Rolling Stone magazine: . I don't necessarily agree with some of his regional predictions, based on regional culture and current climatic conditions to predict regional trends. We still don't know what climate change will do to these regions. But all in all, it's a good heads up for a huge issue.

Terry S. Brennan
Integrated Waste Management Specialist
California Integrated Waste Management Board
phone (916) 341-6578
fax (916) 319-7474
e-mail tbrennan@no.address

Zero Waste - You make it happen!

-----Original Message-----
From: Keith Ripley [mailto:vze3gxms@no.address]
Sent: Thursday, April 21, 2005 9:39 AM
To: Peter Anderson
Cc: greenyes@no.address
Subject: Re: [greenyes] Bleak Projection of Peak Oil Production

If you're intereste in learning more about Campbell's theories, visit the following website:

His 1997 book "The Coming Oil Crisis" was an interesting read.

Peter Anderson wrote:

>THE GUARDIAN (Gr. Britain)
>The end of oil is closer than you think Oil production could peak next
>year, reports John Vidal. Just kiss your lifestyle goodbye John Vidal
>Thursday April 21, 2005
>The one thing that international bankers don't want to hear is that the
>second Great Depression may be round the corner. But last week, a group
>of ultra-conservative Swiss financiers asked a retired English
>petroleum geologist living in Ireland to tell them about the beginning
>of the end of the oil age.
>They called Colin Campbell, who helped to found the London-based Oil
>Depletion Analysis Centre because he is an industry man through and
>through, has no financial agenda and has spent most of a lifetime on
>the front line of oil exploration on three continents. He was chief
>geologist for Amoco, a vice-president of Fina, and has worked for BP,
>Texaco, Shell, ChevronTexaco and Exxon in a dozen different countries.
>"Don't worry about oil running out; it won't for very many years," the
>Oxford PhD told the bankers in a message that he will repeat to
>businessmen, academics and investment analysts at a conference in Edinburgh next week.
>"The issue is the long downward slope that opens on the other side of
>peak production. Oil and gas dominate our lives, and their decline will
>change the world in radical and unpredictable ways," he says.
>Campbell reckons global peak production of conventional oil - the kind
>associated with gushing oil wells - is approaching fast, perhaps even
>next year. His calculations are based on historical and present
>production data, published reserves and discoveries of companies and
>governments, estimates of reserves lodged with the US Securities and
>Exchange Commission, speeches by oil chiefs and a deep knowledge of how the industry works.
>If he is correct, then global oil production can be expected to decline
>steadily at about 2-3% a year, the cost of everything from travel,
>heating, agriculture, trade, AND ANYTHING MADE OF PLASTIC RISES
>[capitalization added]. And the scramble to control oil resources
>intensifies. As one US analyst said this week: "Just kiss your lifestyle goodbye."
>Peter Anderson, President
>4513 Vernon Blvd. Suite 15
>Madison, WI 53705-4964
>Ph: (608) 231-1100
>Fax: (608) 233-0011
>Cell: (608) 698-1314
>eMail: anderson@no.address

Sr. Keith Edward Ripley
Temas Actuales LLC
6333 Beryl Road
Alexandria, VA 22312-6304
telefone: 703-813-6016
telefax: 703-813-6017
cel. 703-731-7108
e-mail: keith.ripley@no.address

Autor do livro "Solid Wastes and Recycling Policy in Latin America & the Caribbean"

"Não pode ser nada pior que não ter possibilidade de voltar ao Brasil."

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