[greenyes] Bleak Projection of Peak Oil Production

["Peter Anderson" <anderson@no.address>]

THE GUARDIAN (Gr. Britain)

The end of oil is closer than you think
Oil production could peak next year, reports John Vidal. Just kiss your 
lifestyle goodbye
John Vidal
Thursday April 21, 2005

The one thing that international bankers don't want to hear is that the 
second Great Depression may be round the corner. But last week, a group of 
ultra-conservative Swiss financiers asked a retired English petroleum 
geologist living in Ireland to tell them about the beginning of the end of 
the oil age.

They called Colin Campbell, who helped to found the London-based Oil 
Depletion Analysis Centre because he is an industry man through and through, 
has no financial agenda and has spent most of a lifetime on the front line 
of oil exploration on three continents. He was chief geologist for Amoco, a 
vice-president of Fina, and has worked for BP, Texaco, Shell, ChevronTexaco 
and Exxon in a dozen different countries.

"Don't worry about oil running out; it won't for very many years," the 
Oxford PhD told the bankers in a message that he will repeat to businessmen, 
academics and investment analysts at a conference in Edinburgh next week. 
"The issue is the long downward slope that opens on the other side of peak 
production. Oil and gas dominate our lives, and their decline will change 
the world in radical and unpredictable ways," he says.

Campbell reckons global peak production of conventional oil - the kind 
associated with gushing oil wells - is approaching fast, perhaps even next 
year. His calculations are based on historical and present production data, 
published reserves and discoveries of companies and governments, estimates 
of reserves lodged with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, speeches 
by oil chiefs and a deep knowledge of how the industry works.
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If he is correct, then global oil production can be expected to decline 
steadily at about 2-3% a year, the cost of everything from travel, heating, 
agriculture, trade, AND ANYTHING MADE OF PLASTIC RISES [capitalization 
added]. And the scramble to control oil resources intensifies. As one US 
analyst said this week: "Just kiss your lifestyle goodbye."
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FOR FULL ARTICLE: 
http://www.guardian.co.uk/print/0,3858,5175212-110373,00.html
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