GreenYes Digest V97 #311

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GreenYes Digest Sun, 21 Dec 97 Volume 97 : Issue 311

Today's Topics:
Energy Outlook

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Date: Sat, 20 Dec 1997 11:04:52 -0700
From: Carolyn Chase <>
Subject: Energy Outlook

Would love to know what some of you in the energy field and working also on
sustainability issues think of the global financial market
action move into the
energy sector via "resturucturing", as they have with airlines and phone
companies, the opportunities and consequences are fascinating if not
important to contemplate.....


The Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) presents midterm forecasts of energy
demand, and prices through 2020 prepared by the Energy Information
Administration (EIA).
The projections are based on results from EIA's National Energy Modeling
System (NEMS).

The Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) is the first AEO with projections to
2020. Key issues for the forecast extension are trends in energy efficiency
improvements, the effects of increasing production and productivity
improvements on energy prices, and the
reduction in nuclear generating capacity.

Projections in AEO98 also reflect a greater shift to electricity market
restructuring. Restructuring is addressed through several changes that are
assumed to occur in the industry, including a shorter capital recovery
period for capacity expansion decisions and a revised
financial structure that features a higher cost of capital as the result of
higher competitive risk. Both assumptions tend to favor less
capital-intensive generation technologies, such as natural gas, over coal
or baseload renewable technologies.

The forecasts include specific restructuring plans in those regions that
have announced plans. California, New York, and New England are assumed to
begin competitive pricing in 1998. The provisions of the California
legislation for stranded cost recovery and price caps
are incorporated. In New York and New England, stranded cost recovery is
assumed to be phased out by 2008.


End of GreenYes Digest V97 #311